On the morning of January 24, 2019, I had a collective interview with financial securities media in Beijing and Shanghai, and expressed my opinions on industrial policies affecting China's aluminum industry in 2019. I think there are five types of policies that will have a significant impact on the aluminum industry in 2019.

(1) clean up and rectify the illegal electrolytic aluminum production capacity of no. 656 document

On April 12, 2017, the national development and reform commission, ministry of industry and information technology department, the ministry of land and resources and the environmental protection departments jointly issued the "rectification project of electrolytic aluminium industry violation scheme for special operation notice (hair to do industry (2017) no. 656, no. 656), as a symbol, country of electrolytic aluminum industry opens the fifth round of macroeconomic regulation and control. Through the four stages of enterprise self-inspection, local inspection, special spot check and supervision and rectification, the company shut down the built and suspended the construction of nearly 12 million tons of illegal electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and finally the disorderly expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity was thoroughly controlled. In 2017, for the first time in the development history of electrolytic aluminum in China, the production capacity decreased. In 2018, although there are still new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China, these new production capacity are legal and compliant production capacity through quota replacement. The great contribution of zui in document 656 is to promote the orderly and healthy development of China's electrolytic aluminum industry.

In accordance with the relevant ministries and commissions of the state on electrolytic aluminum macroeconomic regulation and control of the spirit of illegal violations of electrolytic aluminum capacity on the head. Not only is the government clamping down, but every new project must disclose the source of the replacement index. Moreover, all enterprises in the industry are staring at the new projects, and the eyes of the masses are sharp. As long as there are illegal projects, they will be reported by the masses. Therefore, there is no illegal aluminum electrolysis capacity in the whole year of 2018, and there will still be no illegal aluminum electrolysis capacity in 2019. Insiders agree that the impact of document 656 will last much longer.

(ii) production capacity replacement documents

On January 17, 2018, the ministry of industry and information technology issued a notice on matters related to capacity replacement of electrolytic aluminum enterprises through merger and reorganization. Its main spirit is:

1. Equivalent or reduced displacement. The capacity transfer of electrolytic aluminum within the scope of replacement index can only be carried out in the same amount or in a reduced quantity, and cannot be added. It is absolutely not allowed to take the opportunity of capacity transfer to expand the capacity.

2. Capacity index acquisition. The capacity replacement index of electrolytic aluminum can be obtained through merger and reorganization and market transaction.

3. Not all the closed production capacity can be used as replacement index. The illegal and illegal production capacity determined according to document 656 in October 2017 cannot be used for replacement, and the production capacity index used for replacement must be legal and compliant, and outdated production capacity must be eliminated.

4. There will be no new capacity replacement index in 2019. The replacement capacity indicator must be completed before December 31, 2018. If the replacement is overdue, it will be invalid. This means that there will be no new electrolytic aluminum capacity indicators in 2019. According to public statistics, since 2017, a total of 4.13 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity has been replaced.

(3) documents on self-provided coal-fired power plants

On November 30, 2015, the national development and reform commission, the state energy administration and nine other ministries and commissions jointly issued the supporting document for the reform of the electric power system, "guidance on strengthening and standardizing the supervision and management of self-owned coal-fired power plants", which requires self-owned power plants to standardize the management, assume social responsibilities and pay various fees.

On March 22, 2018, the national development and reform commission issued a "standard of self-provided power plant of coal construction and run special administrative scheme (draft)", the construction and operation of self-provided power plant of national coal 24 regulation measures were put forward, which has been clear about the self-provided power plant not only to pay various taxes and fees in the future but also recovered, relevant taxes, yearning for years in the history of zui severe coal-fired power regulation policy.

Synthesizing the main spirit of these two documents, it is clear actually that the development direction of the utility of the self-provided power plant. The implementation of these two documents will greatly reduce the profit margin of enterprises' self-owned power plants, make the electricity market of aluminum industry more fair, and promote the transition of self-owned power plant zui to public power plant.

(iv) environmental protection documents

1. Action plan for comprehensive control of air pollution in the beijing-tianjin-hebei region and surrounding areas in the autumn and winter of 2018-2019. "2 26" city strictly control electrolytic aluminum, alumina, carbon anode capacity, heating season pressure production. "2 26" cities involved electrolytic aluminum operation capacity of about 12.4 million tons/year, pressure production 30% equivalent to pressure production 3.72 million tons; The operational capacity of alumina is about 25.1 million tons/year, and the pressure production 30% is equivalent to the pressure production 7.53 million tons. The operating capacity of carbon for aluminum is about 8.3 million tons/year, and the pressure production is 50%, equivalent to the pressure production of 2.49 million tons.

In addition to the comprehensive air pollution control document, three new environmental protection documents will come into force from January 1, 2019.

Law of the People's Republic of China on the prevention and control of soil pollution. The law established the soil pollution supervision unit 13 classes such as soil pollution liability subject and scope of responsibility, a new government responsibility system for the prevention and control of soil pollution, pollution liability system, environment information sharing mechanism, pollution investigation and monitoring system, the prevention and control of poisonous and harmful material system, risk control and repair system of pollution, pollution prevention and control of soil pollution risk management system such as fund system. Electrolytic aluminum ash residue and alumina red mud with high PH value are listed in the "hazardous waste list", which has a great impact on the industry.

3. Pollution discharge permit management measures (trial). The document will cover all key industries from the pilot industry to the aluminum industry starting in 2019.

4. Public participation in environmental impact assessment. The main thrust of the document is to encourage the participation of citizens, legal persons and other organizations in environmental impact assessments, with the introduction of a national assessment.

(5) alumina documents

In December 2018, the ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and reform commission jointly issued a notice on promoting the orderly development of alumina industry. The main spirit of this document is to curb the blind expansion of alumina industry and promote the sustainable and healthy development of alumina industry. By the end of 2018, China has formed the electrolytic aluminium production capacity 41 million tons, has built in alumina production capacity of 84 million tons, according to the 1 tons of electrolytic aluminum smelting need to use 2 tons of alumina ratio, considering the alumina except aluminium there is a small part of the used for other manufacturing, therefore, the proportion of aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum production capacity has formed the golden ratio, structure adjustment is already in place, so increases production of alumina is when the emergency brake, this file is very timely, dissolve the aluminum overcapacity industries and enterprises have many years of pain, alumina can never repeat! The document puts forward three important indicators for alumina production: to promote the green development of alumina industry, the target should be the comprehensive recovery rate above 80%, the comprehensive energy consumption under 380 kg standard coal, and the production of 1 ton of alumina new water consumption under 3 tons. The document also has a focus on encouraging consolidation among alumina companies.